Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Brown Leads Warren By 5 Points In Latest Poll

Democratic Senatorial candidate Elizabeth Warren is losing ground in her race against Republican incumbent Scott Brown.

This is the verdict of the latest poll from Public Policy Polling released yesterday. PPP is generally regarded as leaning Democratic in its results.

The release from PPP about the results of their poll follows: 

PPP's newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds Scott Brown opening up a 5 point lead, 49-44. This is the first time Brown has led in one of our polls since June of 2011. Our last poll, in June of this year, found a tie and the two before that had modest leads for Elizabeth Warren.

Brown continues to do well because of his personal popularity and because voters see him as different from the Republican Party as a whole. 53% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 36% who disapprove. Incumbents with those kinds of approval numbers generally don't lose. Brown's approval has improved a net 14 points from March when he was at +3 (45/42). Warren's numbers are headed in the other direction. On that poll her favorability was 46/33 and now it's 46/43- her negatives have risen 10 points over the last five months while her positives have remained unchanged.

Massachusetts voters see the GOP as a whole as being extreme- 56% think it's too conservative to only 27% who consider it to be 'about right.' But they don't feel that way about Brown- just 30% think he's too conservative to 54% who believe he's 'about right' ideologically. 30% of voters who think Brown's too conservative is less than the 41% who think that Warren is too liberal. Additionally 49% regard Brown more as someone who has been 'an independent voice for Massachusetts' compared to 38% who feel he's been more a 'partisan voice for the national Republican Party.'

Brown has the lead on Warren thanks to a 58-32 advantage with independents, comparable to what he won against Martha Coakley in 2010. He has Republicans strongly unified around him (91-7) and he's pulling a pretty decent amount of Democratic support, 20%, with just 73% of her party's voters committed to Warren at this point.

Things are going well for Brown right now but there's still one major data point in this poll that could spell trouble for him down the line. 53% of voters would like Democrats to have control of the next Senate, compared to 36% who want the Republicans in charge. Brown is winning in spite of that because only 76% of people who want a Democratic majority are currently planning to vote for Warren. If Democrats in the final 11 weeks of the campaign are effective turning it into a referendum on which party they'd like to have control of the Senate for the next two years, Warren might be able to get the race headed back in her direction.

The race remains close but Scott Brown is proving to be pretty resilient despite his state's heavily Democratic electorate.

Full results here.


  1. I'm fairly confident at this point that Scott Brown is going to win this race. The conservative Democrats are splitting the party and breaking for Brown. Whenever this happens the Democrat in the race loses.

    Additionally one of the most important things that you need to do in a race is avoid having your opponent define you. Warren hasn't tried to define Brown and he's done a good job of defining her.

    The Massachusetts Democratic Party Committee owns this one. They are ineffectual at best and the town committees are dysfunctional and irrelevent.

  2. I for one as a dem am going to vote for Scott Brown. Where the dems came up with this lying pochahauntas warren I will never know I hope the people send granny back to her reservation! GO SCOTT BROWN GO MITT ROMNEY!!!!!!!

  3. I don't believe for one moment, nor should anyone else, that a "die hard dem" would vote for Brown and Warren. I'm a former "die hard Republican" who three years ago would never have considered voting for Warren and Obama. Now, however, the luster of both parties has faded, and I have no clue who to vote for. Anyone calling her "granny" is a Howie Carr fan, and no doubt, a die hard--Republican. The least you can do is stop playing games. If you're a die hard Dem, step forward, make yourself known, and I'll believe you. Otherwise, this is an obvious ruse to pretend that Dems are going for Brown/Romney. This is Massachusetts, ergo, methinks you're full of baloney.

  4. Obviously, I meant Brown/Romney.

  5. dennis your a lost soul and now your a unerolled old wise tale (one who sits on fence gets sliver up his ASS) Stop feeling bad for yourself and grow a set of nuts you didnt have any in the last election thats why i voted for clemence and spinelli and lazo, GROW UP BABY

  6. I don't feel bad for myself Mike, I feel bad for you. I have more guts than you'll ever have. At least I ran for office. You just ran.


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