Friday, September 7, 2012

Gallup Reports Jump In Obama's Approval After Convention


President Obama gets a 52 percent approval rating against 43 percent disapproval in Gallup's daily tracking poll, which surveys 500 Americans a night and averages three days of data. The current tracking poll samples the nights of the Democratic National Convention and represents a major jump for Obama, who has basically been running even on approval in tracking and other major national polls, if not a little underwater. 


"This uptick in these two indicators stands in contrast to tracking during the Republican Convention, during which there was no discernible bounce on the ballot tracking. Gallup does not track other measures on Romney that would be comparable to the job approval figure for Obama," Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport wrote about the bounce. "The current data are quite preliminary and for the most part don't reflect the influence of Obama's late Thursday night speech, if any."




















Gallup Press Release

President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party look as if they are getting at least a preliminary bounce from their convention. Today's (Friday, Sept. 7) Gallup Daily tracking update puts Obama's job approval rating at 52%, the highest it has been since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama has also moved to a 48% to 45% lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters in the election tracking, up from Obama's 47% to 46% margin over the last nine days.  

Gallup averages the job approval rating on a three-day rolling average, meaning that today's report encompasses interviewing conducted over the three days of the Democratic Convention in Charlotte -- Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Gallup's report of presidential election preferences are, on the other hand, based on a seven-day rolling average stretching from last Friday, the day after the GOP Convention ended, through last night.  

This uptick in these two indicators stands in contrast to tracking during the Republican Convention, during which there was no discernible bounce on the ballot tracking. Gallup does not track other measures on Romney that would be comparable to the job approval figure for Obama.  

The current data are quite preliminary and for the most part don't reflect the influence of Obama's late Thursday night speech, if any. 

Key focus points now will be the ultimate magnitude and duration of the apparent Democratic bounce going forward. By the middle of next week we will have a good feel for both of these dimensions. It is possible that these upticks are short-lived and that the race will devolve back to a parity by next week. On the other hand, if Obama builds on and sustains his higher job approval rating and lead over Romney, it could signal a possible resetting of the presidential race as it enters the remaining three-and-a-half weeks before the first debate on Oct. 3.

4 comments:

  1. The below might explain how Gallup's poll managed to come up with such a great "Obama' bounce"

    The "brown shirts are coming, the brown shirts are coming!" Apparently Obama/Axelrod, if they don't like your poling data now simply call up the United States Department of Justice and have them sue you, just ask Gallup-see below article

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    Internal emails between senior officials at The Gallup Organization, obtained by The Daily Caller (TheDC), show senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod attempting to subtly intimidate the respected polling firm when its numbers were unfavorable to the president.

    After Gallup declined to change its polling methodology, Obama’s Department of Justice hit it with an unrelated lawsuit that appears damning on its face.

    TheDC is withholding the identities of the Gallup officials to protect them from potential retaliation from Obama’s campaign and his administration.

    In April, Axelrod tweeted that a poll showing Mitt Romney with a 48-43 percent lead over Obama was “saddled with some methodological problems,” directing his Twitter followers to read a National Journal story criticizing Gallup polls showing a Romney lead.

    In that National Journal piece, Ron Brownstein wrote that the polls showing Romney leading the president had “a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012.”

    Internally, Gallup officials discussed via email how to respond Axelrod’s accusations. One suggested that it “seems like a pretty good time for a blog response,” and named a potential writer.

    In response to that suggestion, another senior Gallup official wrote — in an email chain titled “Axelrod vs. Gallup” — that the White House “has asked” a senior Gallup staffer “to come over and explain our methodology too.”

    Folks, welcome to Venezuela

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So you’re discrediting the results of the Gallup organization based upon unnamed sources in one of the most reactionary and discredited rags in the blogosphere run by Tucker Carlson who has been on a downward spiral ever since he “left” CNN.

      Among The Daily Caller’s highlights:

      On June 25, 2010, The Daily Caller published private e-mails from Washington Post blogger Dave Weigel denigrating conservatives, whom he covered for the paper.

      On July 15, 2010, The Daily Caller announced its acquisition of KeithOlbermann.com, which it linked to The Daily Caller's homepage.

      The Daily Caller's White House reporter Neil Munro received criticism for interrupting President Obama's prepared remarks on June 15, 2012.

      What’s your next source, WorldNet Daily?

      Delete
  2. Gosh a poltical "bounce" after a convention? Who knew?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I suppose. Romney got a bounce too. Only thing was that Mitt's was negative.

      Delete

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