Sunday, September 16, 2012

Poll Shows Warren With 6 Point Lead

UPDATE: 9/18 For the third time this week a new poll, this time from Suffolk University, shows Elizabeth Warren has taken a lead in the Massachusetts Senate Race.

UPDATE: 9/17 Another new poll by Public Policy Polling shows Warren with a two point lead, an improvement of seven points since their last poll just before the Republican convention.

A survey of Massachusetts voters conducted Sept. 6-13 by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with Springfield newspaper The Republican and, shows Warren leading over Brown, 50 to 44 percent, among likely voters.

The gap among registered voters is even larger, according to the survey, which concluded Warren leads 53 to 41 percent. 

Quoted in The Republican, Tim Vercellotti, professor of political science and director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University, said Warren's lead comes in part from the fact that she's shored up support among Democrats to 89 percent, while losing only six percent of her party's support to Brown.

"When we poll again in the next couple of weeks, we will see if her numbers remain steady among Democrats, which may demonstrate that the party is unified under a continuing narrative that will carry on throughout the election season," Vercellotti said.

The poll concludes that Warren now holds support from 55 percent of the women likely to vote while 40 percent are backing Brown. Five percent say they are still undecided. Brown remains ahead by five percentage points among men, 49 percent to 44 percent.

While support for each candidate also varies by region, the poll concludes that Western Massachusetts is strongly leaning toward Warren 61 percent to 33 percent – a huge margin, given Warren’s six-point lead among likely voters overall.

For all registered voters, Warren’s numbers are 54 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable, for a net positive rating of 26 points, compared to a net positive rating of only 11 points in May among all registered voters.


  1. Just don't see an upset in the cards.

    Polls used to be something you could believe in, before 2000.

    1. Peeps:

      The same organization conducted a similar poll between May 29 and 31 with a far different result. The issue is the trend. The real test will be the upcoming debates and the public response to them.

  2. The Hill-Ballot Box: Tweet by Alexandra Jaffe-09/19/12 09:39 AM ET

    4th straight poll gives Warren lead over Brown in Mass. Senate race.

  3. Your Friendly Reminder:

    Tonight @ 7:00PM - 1st Senate Debate


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